The Dallas Cowboys return from their bye week with a daunting challenge ahead: a showdown against the San Francisco 49ers. Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys find themselves at a crucial point in the season, especially facing a team that has dominated their recent matchups.
The 49ers have had the upper hand, winning the last three encounters since 2021, including playoff matchups that left a mark on Dallas. The Cowboys’ last victory over San Francisco dates back to 2020—a forgettable game that was ultimately moved off prime-time television.
Now, the stage is set once again for NBC’s Sunday Night Football. The 49ers are currently dealing with their own injury challenges, offering Dallas perhaps its best chance for victory against them in years. However, the Cowboys haven’t secured a road win against San Francisco since 2017, a game highlighted by safety Jeff Heath stepping in as an emergency kicker.
Despite this glimmer of hope, the outlook for Dallas is anything but bright. Forecasts predict a challenging game ahead, with projections for their offensive output notably lower than during their previous game against the Detroit Lions.
Utilizing the NFL Pro model to assess player performances reveals intriguing insights. While predictions can vary, they often help set expectations. In their last matchup against the Lions, the Cowboys failed to score a touchdown, yet receivers CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Tolbert surpassed their expected contributions. Rico Dowdle also emerged as a surprise in the receiving game, albeit with the Cowboys trailing for most of the contest.
Looking towards the upcoming game against the 49ers, the NFL Pro model suggests that most Cowboys players might struggle to exceed their performance from the Lions game, with Tolbert being a potential standout. Historically, the 49ers’ defense has been tough on the Cowboys’ offense, and current projections reflect Dallas’ recent struggles.
In the passing game, the Cowboys may hold a slight advantage against the blitz—a scenario where quarterback Dak Prescott usually shines. However, defensive coordinators across the league are well aware of this and often apply pressure with just four defenders, allowing strong line play to minimize blitzing. The San Francisco defense excels at this strategy, thriving when not blitzing.
The difference in the running game is stark. The Cowboys’ rushing attack, heavily discussed due to Derrick Henry’s league-leading runs, is significantly outmatched by the 49ers. San Francisco boasts a superior ground game led by running back Jordan Mason, who has forced a league-leading 53 missed tackles this season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ defense leads the league with missed tackles on 15.8% of plays.
Clearly, the Cowboys have an uphill battle this week. With their backs against the wall, it remains to be seen if they can rise to the occasion against the formidable 49ers.
