Cowboys’ Risky Trade for Jonathan Mingo Faces Scrutiny as Losses Mount

The Dallas Cowboys’ struggles continue to mount this season, with a 3-7 record placing them firmly in the bottom tier of the NFL standings. While fans are holding out hope for a top-10 draft pick in 2025, the spotlight is increasingly turning to one of their more controversial moves this year—the midseason trade for wide receiver Jonathan Mingo.

The Cowboys dealt a fourth-round draft pick to the Carolina Panthers to acquire Mingo, a move that raised eyebrows even at the time. Now, as losses pile up and that draft pick rises in value, the trade looks increasingly questionable. On its current trajectory, Dallas’ traded fourth-round pick is likely to fall just outside the top 100 selections, a significant price for a player with limited production.

The Gamble on Mingo

Mingo, a second-year player with the Panthers, joined the Cowboys with hopes of revitalizing his young NFL career. However, his start in Dallas has been underwhelming. During the Cowboys’ Monday night loss to the Houston Texans, Mingo registered zero catches on four targets. While it’s fair to allow for an adjustment period, his initial performances have done little to ease concerns about the trade.

The Cowboys’ front office is known for its strong draft acumen, particularly in later rounds. This makes the decision to part with a valuable draft pick for Mingo all the more puzzling. Historically, Dallas has hit on 57% of its fourth-round picks over the past decade—a success rate that rivals that of second-round selections league-wide. Players like Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, and Jake Ferguson are all products of this round, underscoring the potential value the Cowboys routinely extract from these picks.

A Risky Trade in Retrospect

At the time of the trade, analysis suggested the Cowboys came out ahead in terms of player-for-pick value. However, that evaluation didn’t account for what Dallas might have gained by simply using the pick themselves. With a proven track record in the draft, the Cowboys could have bolstered their roster with another Pro Bowl-caliber player or a reliable contributor.

This is especially frustrating given the current state of the team. The Cowboys’ offense has struggled to find consistency, and their once-dominant defense has been unable to carry the load. Mingo’s arrival hasn’t provided the immediate spark the team hoped for, and it’s becoming increasingly likely that Dallas may have overestimated his potential impact.

The Bigger Picture

The Cowboys’ fourth-round success rate significantly outpaces the league average, making their decision to part with the pick particularly costly. Data shows that their selections from this round are twice as likely to become impactful players compared to the league average. This is a team that turned middle-round picks into stars—one that has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to find talent.

As the season progresses, the Cowboys’ draft capital continues to climb in value. And while Mingo still has time to make his mark in Dallas, the early returns suggest this trade may not live up to expectations. For a team that prides itself on building through the draft, the move to prioritize Mingo over a proven drafting strategy is starting to look like a misstep.

In hindsight, the trade serves as a reminder of the high stakes involved in giving up draft picks. For Dallas, the question lingers: Was it worth it? With every loss, the answer feels increasingly clear.